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24/8/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Plodders' handicap - money muncher wins!!

Punters who backed that notorious Bart Cummings trained money muncher, Philidor, must have been sorely tempted to again throw away their tickets before the race ended.

In a slowly run race Philidor had settled worse than midfield on the rails. By the 600 Scott Seamer had got shuffled back to last. Despite that, when all look lost Philidor found an opening and flew home to win by over a length.

Philidor's price in this restricted 2115 metres handicap? Well, punters on track thought the $2.60 was too good to resist. He was solidly backed into a paltry $2.25. (Tote punters in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland had to make do with an even more unrealistic $2.10).

That was only Philidor's second win from 22 starts. Throw in just another four placings and you have a horse who has regularly been well supported and has wiped punters out. It is so hard to believe. $2.25 about a horse with one solitary win from 21 starts? On a Saturday metropolitan meeting as well! You've got to pinch yourself to realise it's true.

Not one smart punter we know would go near a horse like that at those unbelievably short odds. No doubt Philidor will be sent out at short odds again next start after such an impressive win. If there is anything in the race with four legs, Philidor will be good to bet against!


They're great to bet against

Just like proven non-winners with a very low win strike rate can allow you to find value backing against them, so too do short priced horses rising substantially in the weights.

The very smart five year old Gai Waterhouse trained mare, Mulan Princess put in an impressive first up run in Group 3 Weight for Age company when first up on July 28 after having some difficulty getting a run.

So at Warwick Farm last Saturday she was down in class, second up, in a Fillies and Mares Listed handicap. In the 13 horse field she had an ordinary barrier, 10. She also rose in weight by a hefty four kilos to a hefty top weight of 59kg. Now that's sure not going to make her run any faster.

Punters backed Mulan Princess on track into $2.80 before she eased a little to start at $3.00. She settled well back, never got into the race and finished sixth.

A vet's examination after the race found Mulan Princess was mildly lame in the off-fore leg. Just another risk factor when backing horses! She would have gone better without that injury, but could it have been caused by the extra exertion on the horse due to carrying 59kg. under pressure?

Just try and carry, under pressure, a weight that you're not comfortable with and see if you always escape injury free.

At Moonee Valley Raja Lane was solidly supported from $4.20 into $3.50 favourite in a 3YO fillies Listed race over 1000 metres. Raja Lane had been an outstanding winner three weeks earlier, on July 28, over the same distance in the 2 and 3YO Group 3 Dermody Stakes at Cheltenham. But she carried the featherweight of only 49.5kg.

At Moonee Valley she rose in weight from 49.5kg to 56.5kg. That seven kilos weight rise had to make a difference. At short odds Raja Lane was a huge risk. So it turned out. She finished second but was thrashed by four lengths.

The winner? Golden Delicious, a filly from West Australia who had four wins from five starts. She had won her previous two races, as a short priced favourite, by over two lengths each time. She also dropped in weight from her last start win carrying 55.5kg. to 54kg.

$3.50 Raja Lane or around $10.00 Golden Delicious? The smart punters we know who bet in the race took the $10.00 Golden Delicious - she's apples.

Be very wary about West Australian horses with top form if they are allowed to go around at big odds when they come east. They could well be excellent value. Remember Northerly last year?


Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Spring horses to follow
Jockey watch
First up "good things"


Top Odds Are Important

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners last week?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Showgazer 3.40 5.00 67% $160
Kingsgate 3.90 5.50 55% $160
Citibest 3.90 5.50 55% $110
Ha Ha 3.90 5.00 38% $110
Zedivain 2.00 2.90 90% $90
Madame Plume 3.20 4.00 36% $80
Lonhro 2.90 3.50 32% $60
Camargo 2.10 2.60 46% $50
Philidor 2.10 2.60 46% $50
Yuppie 1.80 2.25 56% $45

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Grand Seattle 47.60 58.90 $1130
Raw Instinct 18.50 24.80 $630
Paris Royale 23.80 29.70 $590
Piavonic 32.00 36.90 $490
Royal Sencherec 11.80 14.40 $260
Vickers 12.00 14.30 $230
Dobroyd 11.90 14.00 $210



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