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25/1/2002 edition

Betting Tips

Scenic Warrior

Trained by Lee Freedman and with top jockey Patrick Payne in the saddle, first up in an Open Handicap at Sandown over 1200 metres, this four year old gelding was sent out a well supported $3.20 favourite. He had won a Sandown Guineas and been placed several times in Group 1 company.

He loomed up to win in the straight and his backers were counting their winnings. But over the last 100 metres he died on his run and finished second to the roughie Gattaca ridden by Darren Gauci.

Still, a good run by Scenic Warrior. He will be fitter next start. He did start from barrier 10 and had top weight of 58kg. Gattaca only had to carry 53kg.


How good is Choisir?

This Paul Perry trained colt effortlessly won the $400,000 2YO William Inglis Classic at Warwick Farm and made the impressive, previously undefeated Pillaging look second rate.

The time was only 1.52 outside the track record. Not bad for a two year old. Worth keeping in mind though was that Pillaging did start from the widest barrier, 11. The result could well have been much closer if Pillaging had drawn a decent barrier.


Adelaide bookmakers

I couldn't help noticing the massive unders offered by them on Westace who won the Queen Adelaide Stakes last Saturday, a Listed 2YO sprint over $40,000 metres.

Westace started in the betting ring at $10.00. Best tote odds was $36.30 on SuperTab. Lowest tote odds was $19.20.

There was a good reason for this. The starting price bookmaker market was a whopping 146% for the 15 runners. Top fluctuation was a poor 130%. With odds like that the bookies might as well have put up a sign saying "No betting this race."

But they'll get away with it as long as punters are prepared to take the paltry odds on offer. So Presumed Innocent was plunged from $5.00 to $3.50 and finished second. Red Labelle was backed from $7.00 to $5.50 and finished third. Defiant was backed from $21.00 to $13.00 and finished fourth.

It was another guaranteed bookies' benefit race. You would hardly imagine any bookie losing by taking a bet on Westace at $10.00 when they could go and back it on the tote and get up to $36.30. In fact what punter would want to even back it with the bookies and only take $10.00?

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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the minimum prices you should have received.
Make sure you do!

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Bomber Bill 4.10 5.50 45% $140
Grampians 4.60 6.00 39% $140
Karla Keys 3.90 5.00 38% $110
Kaaptive Empress 2.00 2.60 60% $60


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Westace 19.20 36.30 $1710
Betrille 39.30 49.30 $1000
Kaaptonite 16.10 20.70 $460
Ouch 12.50 15.90 $340


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