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26/10/2001 edition

Cox Plate Match Race?

W.S.Cox Plate
Group 1. $2,050,000 with a $20,000 trophy.
For three-year-olds and upward.
Weight for Age.
Apprentices cannot claim.

1- Northerly 3 Damien Oliver
2- Silvano 6 Andreas Suborics
3- Caitano 5 Andreas Starke
4- Referral 2 Corey Brown
5- King Keitel 4 Brian York
6- Universal Prince 7 Justin Sheehan
7- Sunline 8 Greg Childs
8- Viscount 1 Kerrin McEvoy

Is Saturday's Cox Plate a match race? At present the markets would seem to pretty much indicate that, with Sunline at $2.30 and Northerly $3.20. The form of these horses is well documented. They are both at their peak and Sunline is aiming to emulate the great Kingston Town by winning three Cox Plates in a row. However there is a nagging suspicion that Sunline, now a six year old mare, is not quite as good as she was last year when she donkey licked the field.

However the race is possibly not as clear cut as first appears.

Universal Prince, the current Melbourne Cup favourite, worked brilliantly at Moonee Valley on Tuesday morning. He absolutely flew home at his last start. The small field will suit him. He won't have to get around too many horses.

Five year old German horse Silvano cannot be ignored. He has three Group 1 wins in three different countries this year and was the first German horse to win a Group 1 race in America. His best distance is also 2000 metres.

Silvano could well be over the odds. Local punters will concentrate on the local horses. How can they ignore the many overseas horses who have come here and failed in the Melbourne Cup? One media commentator even said to treat them as scratchings.

Without doubt Silvano is world class. On pure ratings figures he rates as well as Sunline. French galloper Jim And Tonic beat Sunline into third place at Dubai. Silvano came out and easily beat Jim And Tonic in Singapore. If Silvano handles the tight Moonee Valley track he could make things very interesting.

Is the Cox Plate a good betting race? It used to be. Not now. It will be a great spectacle but is not a race for major bets. The more unknowns in a race the poorer it can become as a betting race. When you are betting into markets of over 100% it is difficult enough with local horses. When you add to the equation the wildcards from overseas you usually end up with a poor betting race.

Next pages
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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Gordo 6.50 8.00 27% $150
Count Scenario 3.60 5.00 54% $140
Stylish Cossack 4.20 5.50 41% $130
Windigo 4.30 5.50 36% $120
Pernod 4.10 5.00 29% $90
Burkina Miss 2.70 3.50 47% $80
Heptonstall 1.70 2.10 57% $40
Jar Jar Binks 1.80 2.10 38% $30

Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Sea Front 15.90 28.00 $1210
Philidor 11.00 16.00 $500
Brief Embrace 6.40 10.80 $440
Undenied 15.10 19.00 $390
Restless 10.50 13.30 $280
Freemason 12.10 14.40 $230
Joie 14.40 16.40 $200


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