27/7/2001 edition

Bet For Value

Have a look at what happened to punters at Warwick Farm last Saturday. Don't let that happen to you. It is very easy to avoid these horses if you are prepared to dismiss the media and betting hype for exactly what it is, just a lot of hot air.

Kingview - what went wrong?

This Gai Waterhouse trained three year old had been most impressive winning his three races back from a spell. So after firming from $4.60 he was sent out at the relatively short odds of $4.00 in the opening race at Warwick Farm.

Jockey Glen Boss settled him on the speed and gave him every chance in the race, but Kingview finished last, beaten by more than 13 lengths.

When the stewards investigated Glen Boss told the stewards that Kingview wanted to lay out from the 900. He also added that the horse rose in distance from 1300 metres to 1600 metres and had to carry 59kg.

At the short odds of $4.00 with a rise in distance and a 3.5kg. weight rise to a hefty 59kg., the horse was never a value bet.

Stylish Lass - not so stylish

Another Gai Waterhouse trained horse featured in the next at Warwick Farm.

Stylish Lass two weeks earlier won a 2YO Fillies Open in outstanding style by six lengths. But last Saturday she went up in weight from 56kg. to 58kg. She also went up in class, to a 2YO Open.

All the media hype was that as she won so easily last start she'd have no problems with the 58kg. So the money came for her at the poor odds of $2.60 and she was sent out the even shorter priced $2.10 favourite.

Jockey, Lenny Beasley rode her on the speed and gave her every chance. She was a beaten filly at the 200 and finished down the track. The solid rise in weight to 58kg. combined with a rise in class was her undoing.

Win Here Win There - but not last Saturday

Punters were determined to get their money back in the next race at Warwick Farm so Win Here Win There firmed in the betting ring and was sent out as favourite at the odds of only $3.20.

Win Here Win There was an impressive winner in a restricted midweek race 17 days earlier. But last Saturday she was up in class to a 2YO Fillies Open. She also rose from 52.5kg. to 55kg. On top of that she also had barrier 10 in the 12 horse field.

Jockey Craig Agnew got her out fast from the barriers and she led the field. She was challenged in the straight, fought on well but finished fourth.

Despite her impressive last start win, you'd hardly want to be on her at only $3.20.

Punters then came back for more!

Having seen Win Here Win There do anything but that, many punters tried to recover their money back by backing the Gai Waterhouse trained Disney Dollars in the next race at Warwick Farm.

Disney Dollars had put in a promising first up run two weeks earlier over 1300 metres. He did look a good chance second up over 1400 metres with top hoop Danny Beasley, who has successfully ridden many plunge horses for Gai waterhouse, taking the ride.

Only problem was Disney Dollars rose in weight from 53.5kg. to 57kg. But that didn't deter plenty of support for the four year old gelding who was backed in the ring from $3.80 to $3.20. At the jump he also showed only $2.70 on the New South Wales tote.

Danny Beasley rode him well. Disney Dollars settled second, hit the lead on the home turn, but over the last 100 was anchored by his weight increase. He finished third. More like Dizzy Dollars for punters.

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
Identify poor value bets - save your money
More racing media follies
Big winners - beware
Legalised theft
And much more...

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