28/9/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Strategy

Why was Piavonic heavily backed?

When horses drop back sharply in distance without a good freshen up they are generally very risky bets. A case in point was Piavonic at the Moonee Valley night meeting on 20th. September. She dropped back from her fine second to Sunline over 1400 metres at Caulfield 19 days earlier to only 1000 metres at Moonee Valley.

Piavonic had an outstanding record at the specialist Moonee Valley track - four wins and four placings from only nine starts. She also had a top record at the distance, 1000 metres - five wins and three placings from 12 starts.

But Piavonic is a six year old mare. She also gets back in her races. The Moonee Valley rail was out five metres. Combine this with the short straight and good leaders and on pace runners are favoured.

It was expecting too much of a six year old mare after only 19 days to drop back from 1400 metres to a 1000 metres sprint against a field of quality sprinters set for the race. Five of the 11 runners were first up from a spell!

The "wealthy mug money" came for Piavonic and she was backed in on track from $6.00 to $4.20. She never got into the race, and was not helped by being inconvenienced shortly after the start. Considering the circumstances it was a top run by Piavonic to finish seventh, beaten a little over two lengths. But not what her backers wanted.

3000 metres plodders' races

These non events are held at Moonee Valley. They have to be some of the worst betting races around. Ordinary horses racing over an unusual distance, 200 metres shorter than the Melbourne Cup. You don't find any Melbourne Cup hopefuls in these restricted races! We usually take a quick glance at the field and then dismiss the race.

At Moonee Valley Maranello with the huge impost of 58.5kg. was backed in on track from $3.20 to $2.80 favourite in the 11 horse plodders' event. No doubt on the strength of the jockey, Damien Oliver. To be fair, Maranello had better form than most horses who contest an event like this. He had five wins and five placings from 19 starts and had really come good over his last six starts - three wins and three places.

However Maranello had never raced at the distance. His form also indicated he liked the sting out of the track. He had raced six times on Good rated tracks, which Moonee Valley was, for only two placings. Take those factors and 58.5kg. and there is no way you should want only $2.80 about the horse.

Maranello was leading at the 400 but folded badly and finished fifth, beaten by nearly nine lengths.

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