29/3/2002 edition

Golden Slipper Day
Good Betting Odds Needed

Golden Slipper Day favourites

If you backed the winning favourites in the first two races at Rosehill, and got top official betting ring odds on them, Youhadyourwarning $3.40 and Ugachaka $4.00 you could have finished nearly even for the day backing short priced favourites.

Tote punters got hit for six as usual with short priced tote favourites. Youhadyourwarning paid $2.50 on SuperTab and Ugachaka paid $3.20 on SuperTab. Consistently back short priced favourites on the tote and you might as well throw your money away.

There were plenty of very unrealistic short odds bet about favourites at Rosehill on Golden Slipper Day such as:
Solitary Soldier $2.35 - finished 7/11.
Universal Prince $2.10 - finished 2/7.
Chong Tong $3.10 - finished 10/12.
Empire $2.30 - finished 5/16.

The plunge on Empire in the last of the day defied logic. In the Listed Handicap over 1200 metres Empire rose in weight from 55kg. to top weight of 57.5kg. It was a massively open race and should have been around $9.00 or $10.00 the field.

We had two Stable Runners in the race. Varicool ran a huge race and finished a very close sixth with $41.00 bet. Crete won and started at $26.00. Plenty of users of our information must have backed the horse on the tote as best tote odds were only $21.10 - unusual for a longshot in a big field.

With the huge Doncaster Handicap meeting coming up on Saturday at Randwick there will be more big fields and open races. Whatever you do, it is best to avoid the short priced tote favourites.

In some of the races you will need at least $10.00, possibly even more about the horse with the best chances of winning.

Each way betting is also not the safe way to go in an open race with a big field. If the value is there, small win bets on two horses at long odds is better than an each way bet on one horse. But just about every punter will be betting eachway in the Doncaster Handicap. Every bookmaker will also be betting each way on the race. Ask yourself why they don't do the same in eight horse fields.

Bookmakers know their betting maths. They know that one quarter of win odds for a place in an eight horse field often offers betting value. They also know that one quarter of win odds for a place (finishing first, second or third) in a 20 horse field like the Doncaster Handicap offers no betting value whatsoever.

Next pages
Loyalty costs you money
Jockey Watch - the contrasting tale of two jockeys
Money talks - plunge horses
Future winners at big odds
Betting packages

Back Tote Longshots?

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