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1/10/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, September 25.

Warwick Farm: Track Good
R2 $150,000 3YO and upward. Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Don Raphael
Result: first
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Kerry Parker

Doomben: Track Good
R2 $25,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Naderoz
Result: first
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Alan Bailey

R4 $25,000 Rs3ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Gallieni
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.70
Jockey: Dan Ballard
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Winner: Winsome Dancer
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.50
Jockey: Adrian Best
Trainer: Kevin Kemp

This edition of Punt to Win:
Make money in good betting races
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Warwick Farm betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 24/9/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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