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2/2/2013 edition

Horse Racing Wagering Betting Tips

"That horse can't lose. I guess we just have to have to take those poor odds!"

Do we?

We suggest punters should be very careful when they hear ex-jockeys and other media promoted "experts" telling them how good a horse is and that they should back it at the odds available because it's a "good thing."

Some time ago we heard an ex jockey describing an odds on favourite in the following way.

Look at him parading in the enclosure. He looks like he's really gone on. There's a lot expected of him. The only thing that might stand in his road here is of course we've got a soft track. It's his first go at it. But they've rolled the track. I still don't think they can beat him. His trainer has got a very big opinion of him... These odds of $1.60 are pretty short. Well, we'll just have to take that.

The ex jockey has correctly identified two problems with the bet:

1. It's the horse's first run on a rain affected track
2. The horse's odds were very short at $1.60.

The correct conclusion was to tell his audience not to back the horse. Unfortunately he did not say that. When you know a horse is poor odds why say "we'll just have to take that."

The huge advantages punters have over bookmakers are:

1. Deciding what races they want to bet in.
2. Deciding what odds to accept.

If you identify a horse as no value then you leave the horse alone and do not back it. It's as simple as that.

If most punters had an understanding of market percentages and were prepared to be more discriminating with their bets then bookmakers like those in Adelaide would not be able to offer so many markets at 130% to 150% and attract plenty of business. Punters also wouldn't be taking any odds they can get on horse because "It's a good thing. It can't lose."

Our legendary tipster, Lucky Lil continues to give you FREE horse racing tips that WIN BIG!

For example:

Fresh and first up from
our end of year/New Year break, on Saturday 19th. January, from just 3 tips Lucky Lil tipped $15.00 winner Tukiyo at Eagle Farm PLUS $6.00 winner Lord Of Brazil at Flemington.

Who can forget Lucky Lil's winning tips on some of the biggest Melbourne Spring Carnival racing days of 2012?

Like:

On Caulfield Cup Day Lucky Lil tipped $15.00 Caulfield Cup Winner Dunaden and Snitsky $6.50 at Randwick!

On Cox Plate Day from 3 tips
Lucky Lil tipped $10.00 Winner Mosse Diva at Rosehill.


Lucky Lil's FREE Tips PLUS FREE Top Four Ratings are available for you:


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Free Saturday Top Four ratings plus Lucky Lil's tips

in the Free Top Four Horse Racing Ratings & Betting Tips Forum.
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This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting tips - "I guess we just have to take those odds."
The Free Big Dividends Trifecta horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/1/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 19/1/2013
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/1/2013
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 12/1/2013
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


2012 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends

Horse

Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Koonoomoo 22.70 31.00 $249
Kasane 26.00 28.70 $81
Green Moon 20.00 22.50 $75
Mahisara 10.20 12.40 $66
Walk With Attitude 6.50 8.50 $60
Verdant 6.60 7.50 $27
Eclair Surprise 9.50 10.30 $24
Villa Verde 3.00 3.80 $24
Genteel 3.70 4.00 $9
Unpretentious 3.90 4.20 $9


 

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