Punt to Win
Horse Racing Betting
Here is an interesting posting from the OZmium horse racing and sports betting forum.
"I'm fairly new to punting and I'm still learning the basics. I've collected lots of opinions and info on selection criteria and methods. I'm trying to make sense of it and get it clear in my mind. I'd greatly appreciate any further ideas or advice from punters on-line here.
I'm a hobby punter, not a professional, so there are limits to the amount of time I can devote to studying a race. I want to limit it to what I can easily extract from The Sportsman guides. It seems to me I need to look at:
1. Physical factors - barrier, weight, number of runners, length of race, state of track. etc. The immutable parameters of the race. "
The more runners in a race, even if they are terrible runners, the longer odds you need for the best horses. The more runners in a race the more likely some of the best horses in the race will have bad luck.
Probably the best distances to bet on are 1200 to 1600 metres.
"2. Non-horse factors - trainer and jockey. (Horses are not greyhounds after all.)"
"3. Career form - place average, prize average, performance over the distance and at track. Class. What calibre horse?"
We tend to ignore average prize money, though a lot of punters make use of it. It gets distorted by prize money increases over time and abnormal prize money for rich restricted races.
It's important to look behind the figures. For example a horse with three unplaced runs at a track from three starts might have actually performed better in ratings terms than a horse with two close wins and a second from three starts at the same track.
When they meet at the track the horse with the wins will usually be sent out at much shorter odds. That's how false favourites can also be created.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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