Punt to Win
Horse Racing Betting
"4. Recent form - last four starts, last run, days since racing etc. Improving? How is it running?"
But as a rule of thumb most horses need a few runs in to improve their fitness levels. Of course there are also first up specialists.
A horse may have had three runs in from a spell, been placed over an unsuitable distance first up and then run over unsuitable conditions at its next two starts, say rain affected tracks. It then gets a dry track fourth up and wins at big odds.
Nothing is too easy and straight forward. If it looks easy and straight forward you can guarantee the odds will not be there.
"5. Analysts, handicappers and tipsters, the markets. I can never have the depth of analysis of the experts: I'd be a fool not to listen to what they have to say."
Do the media tipsters explain why they have horse A on top instead of horse B? Sure, they can tell you what horse A has done and what horse B has done, but do they tell you why that means horse A should be put on top and horse B second? For example, have a look at most published pre race comments to see what we mean.
"6. That's an awful lot of data to synthesize. I'm spending about 45 minutes on a race. And then, of course, having studied it in depth, and having ruined your eyesight on the fine print in the form guide, you might come up with... the favourite."
"7. I'm looking for an elimination device. How can I narrow a race down to a manageable number of runners to study without eliminating winners too often? What is best? A ranking method of analysis or an elimination method?
I've been working on a ranking system. No doubt there are hundreds of them around already, but my way is to build my own system from scratch so that I understand each element. I'm keen to hear voices of experience though...
Great forum. Some very useful stuff. Thanks to all. Happy punting. Not a good weekend for me at the track. Oh well... Hermes."
This edition of Punt to Win:
2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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