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2/9/2006 edition

Horse Racing Betting
Selection Criteria

Continued from previous page

"Hermes,

If you are "really" serious about being a hobby punter you need to set yourself a realistic hobby budget. I would consider myself to be a hobby punter and have set myself an annual punting budget - listing investments, forecast and expected returns. Any hobby requires a budget. Car enthusiasts don't all have an enthusiasm for ferraris or porsches.

If you don't want to spend an average of 45 minutes per race - you will have to follow a statistical selection method. Others on this forum may be able to help you with a "form assessment" model.

However, I have been down this path personally and have not been able to come up with a time efficient method that derives good selections and gives enough action.

Many posters have provided very good horse elimination criteria on this site. A recent posting provided the following information:

1. 88% of winners had a place strike rate greater than 40%.
2. 69% of winners had a place strike rate greater than 50%.
3. 72% of winners were priced at $11 or under in Friday pre-race markets.
4. 72% of winners were in the top five average prizemoney.
5. 58% of winners finished first or second at their last start.
6. 83% of winners had finished in the first five last start.
7. 75% of winners had not risen more than 2kg. from last start.

My own study would testify to the long-term accuracy of these stats. These stats are not the be all and end all, neither are they all equal. Start up your own monitoring system and measure things over time. Look for links between stats and look at which stats "promote" winners, not eliminate horses.

Best of luck.
Regards, Brumby."

Posted in the OZmium horse racing and sports betting forum by Brumby, on June 17, 2002, making use of information from Privateer.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting selection criteria
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/8/2006
Punt to Win index


2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Coronga 10.80 13.70 $29
Funlove 8.40 11.20 $28
All Bar One 15.20 17.50 $23
Segments 7.40 9.50 $21
Testafiable 6.20 8.30 $21
Freeroller 10.10 12.10 $20
Glamour Puss 9.00 10.60 $16


 

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  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.