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22/11/2008
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
Here are the results from Derby Day, Saturday, 1st. November.
Flemington: Track Dead
Victoria Derby Day
R1 $250,000 2YO. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Our Joan Of Arc
Result: first
Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Clarry Conners
Rosehill: Track Good
R1 $70,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Snow Alert
Result: first
Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Chris Waller
R2 $70,000 3YO and upward. Rst90. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Deltona
Result: second
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Jamie Quinnell
Trainer: Kevin Moses
Winner: Zazabeau
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Bart Cummings
R3 $70,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Wanted
Result: first
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Allan Robinson
Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes
R4 $70,000 3YO. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Dorf Command
Result: third
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Daniel Ganderton
Trainer: Clarry Conners
Winner: Back On Top
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Nathan Berry
Trainer: Mario Caltabiano
Morphettville: Track Good
R1 $25,500 Fillies & Mares. Rst94. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Zodiac Queen
Result: first
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Chad Lever
Trainer: Daniel Clarken
R2 $30,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Miss Blake
Result: third
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Ibrahim Gundogdu
Trainer: Jon O'Connor
Winner: Darpana
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.90
Jockey: Ryan Plumb
Trainer: David Hayes
This edition of Punt to Win:
The worst horse racing bet of the century
Betfair - free bet - if you think "it can't win" you can lay it to lose!
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Special offer: Free racing betting package membership!
Free sports betting packages
Sportsbet Australia - fantastic sign up bonuses!
Get those betting odds
Win betting - horse racing favourites
IASbet: Hundreds of dollars in bonuses!
The Surprise Winner horse racing betting system
BetEzy: Hundreds of dollars of free bets!
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Sandown Cup Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Cantala Stakes Day
Betting favourites in small fields: Victoria Derby Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Sandown Cup Day
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Cantala Stakes Day
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: Melbourne Cup & Derby Day
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/11/2008
Punt to Win index
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You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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