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2/11/2001 edition

Northerly's Cox Plate
Silvano Flops

What a brilliant win by Northerly in the Cox Plate. Trailing Sunline by lengths at the home turn and seemingly under pressure he lifted to record a decisive win, denying the champion mare her record equalling third consecutive Cox plate win.

The flop of the race has to be the high class German six year old horse, Silvano, who started at a well supported $7.00. He had every chance and looked like he was going to make a serious challenge in the straight but folded over the last 100 metres and was beaten by five lengths. That was his biggest losing margin since July 1999! Silvano returned a rating for the race well below his overseas ratings.

After a lot of analysis we finally top rated Northerly for our members with Sunline rated second.

It is becoming more and more apparent that most overseas horses, no matter how good they are, will not perform to their true ability unless they have some lead up races here.

Silvano had to cope with:
1. Travel.
2. Quarantine.
3. The Moonee Valley track.
4. Not having raced for 50 days.

In Australia it is very rare for a horse to drop back in distance from over 2200 metres to the Cox Plate distance of 2040 metres with 50 days in between races. Competitive race fitness counts for a lot. Silvano did not have it. That's why he ran out of gas over the last 100 metres.

The hard luck story from the race has to be the John Hawkes' trained three year old colt, Viscount. He settled on the speed, never letting Sunline open up a commanding lead. When throwing out a serious challenge in the straight he was sandwiched between Northerly and Sunline and finished third, beaten by a length.

Without the interference he would have at least finished second. It looks like John Hawkes is going to press ahead and enter Viscount in the Derby on Saturday at Flemington.

On simple ratings figures alone Viscount should be far too good. He just about won the Cox Plate and is now dropping back to three year old company at level weights. However he did have a hard run in the Cox Plate which by rights should have flattened him. To counter that, John Hawkes is a very astute trainer and never enters a horse in a big race unless he thinks there is a realistic winning chance. Who can forget Curata Storm winning a Group 1 race in Sydney at $100 last year!

Next pages
Future winners at big odds
"Lucky Lil" hits back
Four betting traps to avoid

Forgive this horse's bad run
Big run by this horse
Beware racing media "terrific value" tips
And more...

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Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Captain Test 4.00 8.00 133% $400
Rose Beat 2.70 4.50 106% $180
Greensward 4.00 5.50 50% $150
Omens 3.60 5.00 65% $140
Mistegic 3.50 4.80 52% $130
Marstic 4.80 6.00 32% $120
He's Back On Track 2.40 3.50 79% $110
Trinity College 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Comforts 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Descendant 2.80 3.80 56% $100
Pennywort 1.90 2.60 89% $70
Planchet 1.60 2.00 67% $40

Back Tote Longshots?


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Broker's Point 16.00 26.60 $1060
Roaring Forties 24.70 30.80 $610
Crackerjack's Hope 20.00 25.70 $570
McLaren Vale 14.80 20.20 $540
Lord Denning 16.80 21.70 $490
La Bella Dama 34.90 39.00 $410
Silver Truce 16.50 20.10 $360
Sir Breakfast 14.10 16.70 $260
Frere Jacques 9.00 11.40 $240
Weasel Will 10.10 12.00 $190

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