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Punt to Win |
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2/11/2001 edition Horse Racing "Lucky Lil" hits back Pro-Punter tipster "Lucky Lil" usually receives
good feed back. "Lucky Lil" was very pleased with tips given
last week, but it seems you can't please everyone. ----- Original Message ----- From: Perce D. To: NEIL " Very strange but the tip by Lucky Lil last Saturday in race 9 Melbourne was No. 4 La Zagaletta not Weasel Will or is it that she gives two different tips for the same race - one to Pro-Punter members and another to the Newsletter recievers and then takes credit for which ever wins. Remember the tips to the newsletter were:- MR9 No.4 Le Zagaletta and BR8 No.7 Katenian both ran second. Perce" "Lucky Lil" replies: I am very surprised Perce that unlike most readers of the free e-mail newsletter, you do not also see my tips in the Forum which I usually post late Friday night. Weasel Will was available for you and everyone who visited the Forum after I posted my tips. The race, a Group 2 Handicap, was a wide open affair. I thought I did very well tipping Weasel Will on the Forum. It won and paid up to $12.00. Everyone on the free mailing list were given an advantage over the Forum visitors. They had access to the winning tip on the Forum - Weasel Will - and were also tipped Le Zagaletta who at $9.00 ran second. The quinella paid $39.10 on the New South Wales tote. This site is all about not being a typical mug punter. It is not about trying to "pick the winner" of a wide open race with one selection, backing it and then pulling your hair out because the other selection you liked won at good odds. That is why I am pleased that many of our newsletter readers placed small win bets on both Le Zagaletta and Weasel Will rather than just backing one of them each way in the big field. (The accepted safe way to go, but a very poor bet just the same.) Thankfully Perce, I get many more complimentary letters
than complaints like yours. Otherwise I would just provide my information
for paying members who appreciate good tips. Deprave big run This classy three year old colt won the 3YO Group 3 Colin Hayes Stakes at Moonee Valley on September 15 over 1200 metres. On October 27 at the same track he had his first run since then in a 3YO Open Handicap. Deprave went up in weight from 54kg. to 58kg. He also started from barrier eight in the nine horse field. With these disadvantages combined with 42 days between runs he was certainly no good thing. He was sent out equal $4.00 favourite and put in a huge run, briefly hitting the lead in the straight before being grabbed on the line by the Gai Waterhouse trained Time Deposit. Time Deposit was first up from a spell and only carried 52kg. Forgive the run On October 4 John Hawkes' trained Danehill filly Donnadane was a very impressive winner at the Canterbury night meeting. It was the three year old's first start. On the strength of that win she was sent out the short priced $2.60 favourite last Saturday at Rosehill. While well weighted, Donnadane had the widest barrier, nine, in the field. With a good run to the first turn, no doubt they expected Rod Quinn to get a good run in the race. When a horse has a wide barrier and is a leader there is always a risk. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong for Donnadane. She was out very fast, but the horses on her inside pushed up. As a result Donnadane was trapped four wide outside the leaders and Rod Quinn opted not to press on to the lead. Rod Quinn then tried to ease her back in the field to obtain a position. She lost ground, raced erratically and was trapped wide. She also had to be checked off heels. By the home turn she was well back in the field and racing seven wide. She finished seventh, beaten by nearly 10 lengths. The run should be completely ignored. John Hawkes's horses regularly win at good odds. If punters allow Donnadane to get out to silly odds next start she could be a very good bet. Next
pages Warning It is just about impossible
to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
to make up for the big unders on the tote. Did you back any of these winners recently?
Back Tote Longshots?
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