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3/9/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, August 28.

Rosehill: Track Good
R3 $70,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Square One
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Grahame Begg
Winner: Bush Honey
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Guy Walter

Caulfield: Track Good
R3 $75,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1700 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tuareg
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Subtle Irony
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.20
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Paul Preusker

Morphettville: Track Good
R2 $20,000 3YO Fillies. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Zilzie
Result: second
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctuation: $2.10
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Sunmaya
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $15.40
Jockey: David Tootell
Trainer: Mick Whittle

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses resuming from a spell
Get those betting odds
Betting run on horses
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/8/2004
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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