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4/1/2002 edition

Beware Unraced Horses

When a horse having its first race start is in a field it makes betting very tricky.

1. It is very difficult to assess what winning chances that horse has. (We have regularly shown on this site that long term, following the money with these horses is useless.)

2. It makes knowing what is a value price for the horses with race form that much more difficult.

Last Saturday at Cheltenham the first race was a 3YO Open over 1300 metres. There were only four horses in the field. Barossa Broadway started as $2.00 favourite. Luskin's Proud was also short at $2.20. Both these horses were beaten by over three lengths. The winner was the unraced John Hawkes' trained gelding, Dinmont.

Dinmont started at $10.00! You couldn't back him on his trial form either. At his last public trial at Cranbourne on August 27 he finished ninth. But if you know your trainers it was just possible you might have had a small bet on him. The favourites were clearly no value.

1. Hawkes' trained horses generally run well first up.

2. Trial form is irrelevant.

3. Support in the betting ring also means nothing. Many Hawkes' trained horses will ease significantly and then romp in.

4. Plenty of Hawkes' horses win at double figure odds.

Just as horses are creatures of habit, so are most trainers. If you spend many hours thoroughly following and recording what trainers are doing with individual horses you will finally see clear, regular patterns emerge. This will help you immensely with your betting. You will be able to dismiss horses which are well supported favourites. You will also find horses at generous odds that have excellent winning chances. At Pro-Punter we make it our business to know what the trainers are doing with their horses.

Well supported first starters

At Cheltenham there was a restricted race for two year old colts and geldings over 1000 metres. Eight of the nine runners were all first starters.

Sure enough the Tony McEvoy trainer, Simon Price jockey combination produced another runner way under the odds. On The Steel was sent out at $2.10 and finished a well beaten seventh. If you want to back plenty of horses under the odds in Adelaide just stick with the McEvoy - Price combination.

The winner, Crystallion, ridden by Travis Creek, paid $15.40 on SuperTab. He was the only runner with race experience and was only beaten by four lengths at his first start two weeks earlier.

At Caulfield in an eight horse 2YO Open there were four unraced horses. The unraced Hairy Mclairy, trained by Michael Moroney, was the $3.00 favourite. Low strike rate jockey Kerrin McEvoy also had the ride. The colt never looked like winning and finished third.

The winner, Chowpie, trained by Alan Bailey, was also a first starter. Ridden by underrated jockey Andrew Findlay, Chowpie paid $10.00. So much for following the money.

Next pages
Winners keep winning
Small fields, poor value
The horse has the class
Future winners at big odds
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Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the minimum prices you should have received.
Make sure you do!


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Zulu Legend 4.20 6.00 56% $180
Fleecing 4.50 6.00 33% $150
Blur 3.40 4.80 58% $140
Raptor 4.80 6.00 32% $120
Ruember 2.40 3.20 57% $80
Magic Albert 2.90 3.50 32% $60

Back Tote Longshots?


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Sugarland 14.80 19.10 $430
Crystallion 11.40 15.40 $400
Tough Sword 19.80 23.80 $400
She's Alluring 14.80 18.60 $380
Si Senor 11.20 14.40 $320

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