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4/10/2002 edition

2YO Races Betting Tips

We are now at the time of the year where the 2YOs start racing. There were two 1000 metres 2YO Listed races at Randwick last Saturday - 12 fillies in one race and 13 colts and geldings in the other race . The only form available was trial form - a very unreliable guide. Not one of these horses had started in a real race.

Last Saturday at Randwick in the fillies' race Secret Land, trained by Gai Waterhouse, was backed from $2.50 to $2.00. How can you take $2.00 about a horse when you don't even know the quality of teh other runners? Secret Land finished seventh. Was Secret Land a tip from the trainer, Gai Waterhouse, to the connections? The winner Spurcent paid $42.20 on the New South Wales tote.

In the colts and geldings' race Billy Whiz started $3.10 favourite on the strength of a barrier trial win by over five lengths. He certainly didn't live up to his name. He finished 10th. of 13.

There was also some money for the John Hawkes' trained Berber who firmed from $5.50 to $4.60. Punters put their money on the wrong Hawkes trained horse. They didn't support Ribald, who won and paid $20.90 on the New South Wales tote.

When betting in these 2YO races:

The first rule, despite what everyone tells you, is that following the betting ring money is absolutely useless. Substantial bets on unraced horses, when you do not know the true race form for the other runners is nothing more than "wealthy mug money".

If you must bet in these races place very small win bets on horses around $20+ who have top trainers or jockeys or good trial form. They are probably just as likely to win than the "wealthy mug money" supported horses.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting in 2YO races
Is Sunline back?
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley plunge horses
Money talks - Doomben plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/9/2002
Punt to Win index

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Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Spurcent 32.00 42.40 $1040
Gwendolyn 23.30 28.00 $470
The Almighty One 8.00 10,.50 $250

You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

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