More Punt to Win Tips
We told you
Two weeks ago in Punt to Win we wrote:
"Universal Prince - what's so special?
There is nothing special about a horse because he settles well
back last and storms home over the top of the field to win like
Universal Prince did in the Group 1 Canterbury Guineas on Saturday
Those finishes catch the eye. That is all.
If Universal Prince had settled behind the leaders and had what
the media call an "easy run " or "run of the race" and then won by
nearly three lengths he would not have received anywhere near the
Last week in Horse Watch we wrote:
"The media all latched on to the winner of the race.
How could anyone miss Universal Prince's finishing burst from well
back last to win the race?
As we pointed out in last week's Punt to Win there is
nothing special about Universal Prince's win from a betting point
of view at all. Except that Universal Prince will start at short
odds next start and need things to go right to win.
The racing media did not point out that Danamite's run was every
bit as good, if not better than Universal Prince's run. Universal
Prince had the edge in race fitness over Danamite who also covered
plenty of extra ground. If Danamite had drawn a decent barrier
there is every likelihood he would have won the race."
How right we were. Sure enough, all last week, all the media talk
was about how Universal Prince was an absolute moral in last
Saturday's $460,000 Group 1 Rosehill Guineas. You'd have thought
there wasn't another horse in the race.
Universal Prince was sent out at the short odds of $1.80. That was
absolutely crazy. Universal Prince settled well back last and
things didn't go right for him in the straight. Punters lost
hundreds of thousands of dollars backing him.
There were many better bets in the race such as Danamite who
started at $8.00 and was pipped on the post, Hit The
Roof, who again put in a bold run, Zero Rules, who
was disappointing, and the winner, Sale Of Century who
paid $27.10 on the New South Wales tote and was well rated
Our members who used our ratings to back value winners would
have had a few dollars on Sale Of Century.
With your winnings, check out this great online all
Loyal Victorian tote punters hit for six
Isn't it amazing how tote punters are loyal to horses when
those horses travel interstate? Even when the horse has done
nothing to deserve it. Even if it means costing them money.
Bello Signor, a consistent money muncher for Victorian
punters, with only four wins from 30 starts, went to Sydney and
contested a Listed 1900 metres race there.
He was a surprise winner of the open race. Victorian tote punters
were rewarded for their loyalty by the SuperTab dividend of $9.50.
By contrast on the New South Wales tote the dividend was $14.80.
More short odds
Talking about horses going around at short odds what
was Lolita Star doing at $2.80 in the Adelaide
Guineas? Once the media started pushing the filly as a weight
certainty (she dropped 6kg. from her outstanding first up run) the
value vanished. We wanted to back her, but at $3.70 ( the
old 11/4, not 7/4 ).
Century Kid - what a jockey change will do
He was the best of good things beaten at his previous start
two weeks ago when we backed him. He was travelling very
comfortably on the pace and Glen Boss never got a run on him. Put
on Jim Cassidy and despite drawing the widest barrier in the
field, 13, he won easily starting at $5.00.
Mowerman, another case of what's going on?
He looked a strong bet at $4.00 in the 3YO Listed Handicap at
Rosehill won by Century Kid. Mowerman had two runs in from
a spell, looked very good in his last start second in a similar
race over 1100 metres at Canterbury and had put in top rating
performances. It was reasonable to expect an even higher rated
He had a good record at the track and could handle the distance.
He also dropped a kilo in weight to 56kg. and had a much better
barrier, six, compared to 10 at the tight Canterbury track.
Yet he finished a disappointing fifth, beaten by three lengths.
That is why racing is very much a long term betting proposition.
When you are dealing with probabilities you can have unlucky
statistical runs. Similar analysis, of course taking into account
the opposition, will at other times produce a run of nice priced
Assertive Lad - what is going on?
What a plunge!
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