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6/7/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Forgive the run

Classy three year old colt, Regal Shot, the find of the winter in Melbourne, had four things going against him at Moonee Valley last Saturday.

1. The rise in weight from 58.5kg. two weeks earlier to 61kg. Sure, that was reduced to 59kg. after Lonagan Milham's two kilos claim.

2. A significant jockey change. At Sandown on June 16 Regal Shot carried 58.5kg. and won by over three lengths ridden by Damien Oliver, one of the best jockeys around.

Now, with all due respect to Lonagan Milham, who is a very promising young jockey, he is no Damien Oliver. Lonagan Milham had also won on Regal Shot at Sandown on June 2 by over five lengths, but that was with 55.5kg. not 59kg.

3. Regal Shot had a wide barrier, 10, in the 11 horse field.

4. Regal Shot was going up to 1200 metres from 1000 metres for the first time.

In the betting ring he was solidly supported from $3.20 into $2.80. We were prepared to take $3.20 as a minimum price because all things considered the horse has the class to win at least three out of 10 races under the above conditions. At $2.80 he was no value. You need a 37% winning strike rate to break even.

This may seem insignificant. It is not.

If you back horses at $2.80 and get a winning strike rate which breaks even at $3.20 you in fact lose 13.2% on turnover at $2.80.

From his wide barrier with his big weight Regal Shot had to work a little too hard early to lead. He was challenged in the straight and fought on well for third.

Bad luck

You should always allow a certain percentage for bad luck in running. That is one reason why taking short odds is usually a very risky policy. Because of the odds you just cannot afford to have bad luck in the race.

Take La Rieuse at Rosehill last Saturday. He looked an outstanding chance in a 3YO restricted race after three top runs this time in. He was solidly backed and started a short $2.25 favourite. In the home straight he was on the rails, behind the leader and bursting to get out, yet Hugh Bowman had absolutely nowhere to go.

The filly never got a look in the entire straight. Money down the drain. Yet at $2.25 you need to win 45% of the time just to break even.

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