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8/2/2002 edition

Ha Ha Flops
That's No Laughing Matter

Should you take a fixed odds win bet now for the Doncaster Handicap run on March 30? We raised that question two weeks ago in Punt to Win.

We also pointed out why the New South Wales TAB's promotion of fixed odds betting back then, for a race held on March 30, should be ignored by punters.

Promotions in The Sportsman like:

"Back Ha Ha today and you'll be laughing in March."

or an advertising promotion appealing to punters' desires to be seen to know their racing by the New South Wales TAB:

"...there's no better way to show that you know your racing than by placing a bet on the Doncaster now."

In our view that is not intelligent betting by punters. It probably shows they do not know their racing:

Last Saturday Ha Ha was sent out a $2.80 favourite at Warwick Farm and finished a dismal last. Tests failed to reveal anything wrong. Connections are now hoping the track can be blamed - that Ha Ha lost her footing at a vital stage of the race on a slippery part of the track and lacking confidence did not stretch out after that.

Whatever the reason you can be pretty sure of at least one thing.

Any punters who were influenced by the New South Wales TAB's marketing campaign and backed Ha Ha are not laughing now as the price of Ha Ha for the Doncaster Handicap eases.


Back this horse next start?

While on the topic of betting advice here is what Brisbane race caller Alan Thomas said when Brave Tattler from barrier nine of nine was wide throughout in a Mares Class 6 over 1615 metres and finished fifth at Doomben last Saturday. As the race ended Alan Thomas said, "Next run, it will win."

You've got to be a brave tattler to predict that mare will win her next start. After all, the mare has only one win from 21 starts. How does Alan Thomas so confidently know that mare, with such a lowly winning strike rate, will win her next run? Will some of Alan Thomas's race-calling income be on Brave Tattler at its next start?

Next pages
Betting myths
Control your betting - odds, odds, odds
Form analysis - watch out for this
Trainers' "good things"
Money talks
Future winners at big odds
Membership information


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.
Look at the table below and see the percentages lost backing short priced tote favourites compared with the top official bookmaker betting ring prices.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners recently?
If you did, see the minimum prices you should have received.
Make sure you do!

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Hello Boys 4.10 6.00 61% $190
Ugachaka 3.20 5.00 82% $180
Karla Keys 2.40 3.50 79% $110
Spillway 2.60 3.30 44% $70


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices?
Or these prices!!
Extra Profit $100 bet
Magic Marvo
28.50
51.90
$2340
Betrille
39.30
49.30
$1000
Ancient Song
21.20
25.80
$460
Squirtle
8.70
10.70
$200


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