Punt to Win

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8/9/2007 edition

Best Horse Racing Betting Value

Where is the best betting value?
Is it found with short priced horses or longshots?

Believe it or not, horses at the shorter end of the betting market offer better value than longer priced horses. Put simply, horses at $2.00 win closer to 50% of the time compared to horses at $4.00 winning 25% of the time. But horses at $4.00 win closer to 25% of the time than say horses at $10.00 winning 10% of the time.

There is a favourite-longshot bias in the betting market odds and it exists in horse racing markets worldwide. Of course within any range of odds there will be individual horses that are poor value and other horses that are good value.

If you can find strong bets at the shorter end of the market plus make sure you get top odds about them - don't rely on the tote, because you will get huge unders, particularly with Melbourne and Sydney Saturday racing, then you are in there with a real chance.

The other advantage of betting at the shorter end of the market is that you have a higher strike rate, which is extremely important from a betting and psychological standpoint.

How many punters can tolerate a strike rate of 10% or less by backing horses at double figure odds? How many punters will be able to tolerate 20, 30 or even more bets losing in a row. Because if you consistently back horses at $10.00 and longer odds for the win, you can be guaranteed this will happen.

The key of course in wagering is to only bet when you believe you have an advantage. If you can't state clearly why this is a profitable situation for you to bet in then you should keep your money in your pocket.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis betting value
Get those betting odds
The Top Weight Class Horse Handicap racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/8/2007
Punt to Win index

2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


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  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.