Punt to Win
Best Horse Racing Betting Value
Where is the best betting value?
Believe it or not, horses at the shorter end of the betting market offer better value than longer priced horses. Put simply, horses at $2.00 win closer to 50% of the time compared to horses at $4.00 winning 25% of the time. But horses at $4.00 win closer to 25% of the time than say horses at $10.00 winning 10% of the time.
There is a favourite-longshot bias in the betting market odds and it exists in horse racing markets worldwide. Of course within any range of odds there will be individual horses that are poor value and other horses that are good value.
If you can find strong bets at the shorter end of the market plus make sure you get top odds about them - don't rely on the tote, because you will get huge unders, particularly with Melbourne and Sydney Saturday racing, then you are in there with a real chance.
The other advantage of betting at the shorter end of the market is that you have a higher strike rate, which is extremely important from a betting and psychological standpoint.
How many punters can tolerate a strike rate of 10% or less by backing horses at double figure odds? How many punters will be able to tolerate 20, 30 or even more bets losing in a row. Because if you consistently back horses at $10.00 and longer odds for the win, you can be guaranteed this will happen.
The key of course in wagering is to only bet when you believe you have an advantage. If you can't state clearly why this is a profitable situation for you to bet in then you should keep your money in your pocket.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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