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25/8/2007 edition

Horse Racing Barrier Betting Myth
Bet For Value

How often are you told that, "This horse can't win because of the barrier?"

It's a complete myth. It's absolute nonsense.

But it's not just media tipsters that fall for it. Many trainers will scratch horses that draw wide barriers. Leading trainers in media interviews also regularly give their horses from wide barriers little chance of winning.

Have a look yourself at the barriers of winning horses in fields at least ten runners. You will see that wide barriers are pretty much irrelevant.

Of course horses from inside barriers win more races. Why?

The answer is obvious.

In a field of ten horses there are nine horses in the first nine barriers and only one horse in a barrier with double figures. In a field of 11 horses there are nine horses in the first nine barriers and only two horses in a barrier with double figures. In a field of 12 horses there are nine horses in the first nine barriers and only three horses in a barrier with double figures.

At Moonee Valley last Saturday there were six races with fields of 10 or more runners. There were two winners from wide barriers - 10 and 13. That is fair enough considering there were 54 horses in these six races in the first nine barriers and only 26 horses in barriers 10 or wider.

A good tip is to do your form ignoring barriers. If you like a horse don't dismiss it because of the wide barrier. Because so many punters do dismiss horses because of the wide barrier draw you are more likely to get over the odds than backing a horse with the same form from one of the inside barriers.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - wide barriers
Get those betting odds
The Prize Money, Track and Distance Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 18/8/2007
Betting favourites in small fields - 11/8/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 18/8/2007 and 11/8/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 11/8/2007
Punt to Win index


2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


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