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25/8/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 11th. August.

Randwick: Track Dead

R5 $120,000 3YO. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sliding Cube
Result: first

Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Moonee Valley: Track Dead

R1 $75,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Brazen Hussey
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Extension Of Time
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.40
Jockey: Damien Holland
Trainer: David Hayes


Eagle Farm: Track Good

R2 $40,000 Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Grecolo
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Bryan Guy
Winner: Stood Up
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Amy Taylor
Trainer: Michael Nolan

R6 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Daring Fortune
Result: second
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
Jockey: John Powell
Trainer: Brian Sutton
Winner: Motivate
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.00
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Bryan Guy

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing form analysis - wide barriers
Get those betting odds
The Prize Money, Track and Distance Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 18/8/2007
Betting favourites in small fields - 11/8/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 18/8/2007 and 11/8/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 11/8/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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