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9/7/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, July 2.

Rosehill: Track Heavy

R1 $60,000 3YO. Class 6.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tactfully
Result: first

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50

Sunshine Coast - Caloundra Cup Day: Track Heavy

R2 $40,000 Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cajun Steel
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Terry Treichel
Trainer: Gordon Yorke
Winner: Active Combat
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Gary Palmer
Trainer: Barry Bowditch

Cheltenham: Track Slow

R4 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Grace And Power
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Sam Burford
Trainer: David Balfour
Winner: Noble Win
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Peter Roff
Trainer: David Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Midweek city horse racing betting advice
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for popular winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Flemington
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 2/7/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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