10/3/2001 edition

Favourites and Heavy Tracks

False Favourites in the Heavy at Warwick Farm

Hawk Eye, that Bart Cummings trained Zabeel gelding continues to burn a hole in punters' pockets. With no form to recommend on Heavy tracks, in fact on any tracks ( no wins and just six places from 12 starts) he was sent out as $2.10 favourite. He finished second and never looked like winning.

How could you take only $3.10 about Pirouettes? She had never raced on anything worse than Dead. She was unplaced.

What was I Realise doing at $3.50? He had never raced on a Heavy track, nor had he even won in his two attempts on a Slow track.

Poppett $3.70 had never raced on a Heavy track yet was a short priced favourite in a very tough race. Sure, she had performed brilliantly on Slow tracks, but there is the world of difference between Slow going and a genuine Heavy. She finished eighth.

Form from the Warwick Farm meeting

The Heavy track at Warwick Farm last Saturday will make form more difficult to analyse. There were good horses resuming who clearly did not handle the conditions like Universal Prince. Other horses may have been flattered by the conditions.

Be wary of any horses beaten out of sight, no matter what the track conditions, because they very rarely win their next start. The track conditions will be used as an excuse, punters will forgive the horse for being beaten by 10 lengths or so, back the horse next start and lose their money. It happens all the time.

Next: Punt to Win 2/3/2001

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