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10/12/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 3rd. December.

Rosehill: Track Slow

R1 $60,000 3YO Fillies. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Bahia
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Kathy O'Hara
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Sandown Hillside: Track Slow

R1 $45,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Expensively
Result: second
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Dinkum Star
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Don Magick

R2 $45,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: I Command
Result: third
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Reignforest
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.90
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Peter G Moody

R4 $45,000 3YO and upward. Fillies and Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Whittier Miss
Result: first

Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Ben Melham
Trainer: Darren Weir
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80


Cheltenham: Track Good

R2 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2250 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Tingirana
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Michael O'Leary
Winner: Dakasha
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.20
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should you follow the money betting on unraced 2YO horses?
Get those betting odds
The High Strike Rate horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Sandown Hillside
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/12/2005
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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