Punt to Win
Golden Slipper Betting Takes Shape
At this stage the Golden Slipper looks to have three main chances, Written Tycoon, Fashions Afield and Snitzel.
Written Tycoon was outstanding last Saturday, winning the 2YO Group 2 Colts and Geldings Todman Stakes at Rosehill. The Grahame Begg trained colt was sent out third favourite at $5.50.
The short priced, unbeaten John Hawkes' trained Domesday, $2.60, and David Payne's Flying Pegasus, $2.40, finished second and third respectively in the field of six. The result has nothing to do with the betting myth about upsets in small fields. Very simply, in most cases you are asking for trouble betting in a race full of lightly raced horses open to sharp improvement.
There was nothing wrong with Written Tycoon's form coming into the race - a win and a second, beaten 1.3 lengths, by Fashions Afield.
Fashions Afield was equally impressive winning the Fillies Division. Once again John Hawkes had to settle for second, with $1.95 favourite Mnemosyne.
It's interesting to note that at her first up run two weeks earlier Mnemosyne was comfortably beaten by Flying Pegasus. Now Flying Pegasus was well beaten by Written Tycoon last Saturday. Written Tycoon had been comfortably beaten by Fashions Afield.
If the above results were used as a guide to compare the fillies, then possibly Mnemosyne, the wrong filly, was sent out favourite, when it should have been Gai Waterhouse's Fashions Afield.
Fashions Afield's winning time last Saturday was 1:11.83, compared to Written Tycoon who ran 1:11.98. that's about one length faster - it also fits neatly with the fact that Fashions Afield has already defeated Written Tycoon by 1.3 lengths.
This had to be the Gai Waterhouse trained filly, $2.10 favourite Lotteria, finishing sixth in the big 1500 metres Fillies and Mares Group 1 race later in the day. She came into that race undefeated with five wins straight, including a great first up win two weeks earlier in the Surround Stakes and an absolutely stunning win by seven lengths in the Group 1 Flight Stakes at Randwick in October last year before being spelled.
The $2.10 odds were very skinny. We wanted to back Lotteria, but at $2.10 weren't even in the ball park. We saved our money.
Almost as big a shock was the dismal run in the race by Our Egyptian Raine. This 6YO mare had only been beaten 1.5 lengths by Grand Armee two weeks earlier. Big money came for Our Egyptian Raine, with bookmakers turning in the odds from $9.50 all the way in to $4.60. Our Egyptian Raine finished fifteenth of the 16 runners.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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