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11/3/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, March 5.

Rosehill: Track Dead

R1 $300,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Group 2. Set weights.

Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Flying Pegasus
Result: third
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: David Payne
Winner: Written Tycoon
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.80
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Grahame Begg

R4 $400,000 Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Grand Armee
Result: first
Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Cheltenham: Track Dead

R1 $26,000 Open. Handicap.

Distance: 2470 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Exalted Beau
Result: second
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Trainer: Jim Smith
Winner: Loanshark
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $16.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $13.00
Jockey: Craig Robertson
Trainer: Jarrod McLean

R2 $20,000 2YO. Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1310 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Yellowstone
Result: first
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Phillip Stokes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Golden Slipper betting takes shape
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Caulfield
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 4/3/2005
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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