T Undoubtedly: Caulfield Racetrack Blue Diamond Stakes Upset Winner

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4/3/2005 edition

Blue Diamond Stakes Winner

Most punters were left shaking their heads after the running of the 2005 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield last Saturday. This prestigious Group 1 race for 2YOs over 1200 metres had been easily won by the $26.00 bolter Undoubtedly - a colt trained by Mark Kavanagh at Morphettville, South Australia.

$31.00 longshot Seidnazar, trained at Caulfield by Peter Moody, finished second while the popular $3.50 favourite Perfectly Ready, trained at Caulfield by Mick Price ran third.

Of the other well backed runners Opportunity came fourth, while The Rhine and Bradbury's Luck finished tenth and twelfth in the field of 16.

After the race was run some of the media retro experts pointed out that Undoubtedly didn't have that bad form. That was quite correct. But you can bet they didn't mention Undoubtedly's name as a winning chance before the race. Undoubtedly had only raced twice, winning a pretty ordinary 2YO Listed race at Victoria Park and then finished fifth in a Caulfield Blue Diamond Prelude.

Quite frankly, the Blue Diamond Stakes was an appalling rating and betting race.

1. You had a field of 16 lightly raced 2YOs.

2. 10 of these runners had been to the races no more than three times.

3. Nine of the runners were either a winner last start or two starts back.

4. Most runners were open to improvement.

5. The race was run over 1200 metres. Only five of the runners had even raced over that distance.

6. The more unknowns - the more likely you will get a blow out result.

We didn't waste our time with the race.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Undoubtedly - Blue Diamond Stakes upset winner
Get those betting odds
Understanding track bias
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Caulfield and Eagle Farm
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/2/2005
Punt to Win index

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