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4/3/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, February 26.

Caulfield: Track Good

R4 $200,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.

Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Elvstroem
Result: first
Starting price: $1.55
Top fluctuation: $1.55
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Vasil

Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO and upward. Class 6. Handicap.

Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Papa Roach
Result: first
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Jarrod Lorensini
Trainer: John Barns

This edition of Punt to Win:
Undoubtedly - Blue Diamond Stakes upset winner
Get those betting odds
Understanding track bias
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Caulfield and Eagle Farm
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 25/2/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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