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25/2/2005 edition

Betting Money Munchers

Have a look at the following table.
These eight horses all ran last Saturday in metropolitan races around Australia.

Money Munchers - February 19, 2005
Horse Number of Races Number of Wins Starting Price Finish
Astrodame 12 1 4.40 4
Jackman 37 4 4.40 2
Kashkii 54 7 6.00 5
Matey 21 2 5.50 4
Winning Spirit 42 7 2.80 2
Magical Spirit 46 6 2.70 3
William Of Oz 72 8 3.80 2
Stark Touch 63 8 4.00 5

What all these horses have in common is a poor winning strike rate. They also were all sent out at relatively short starting prices last Saturday.

We have all been caught by Money Munchers. These horses very rarely win. But they run just well enough to get your money on them next start. Just as surely they then lose.

Taking short odds about horses with poor winning strike rates is always very risky. If their last start was a good run you need to look at it in this light. After a good run they are just as likely to put in a very ordinary run the following start. That's because most Money Munchers are inconsistent horses.

Punters have never made long term profits taking short odds about Money Munchers.
A very successful punter we know never backs Money Munchers. He rarely backs a horse with less than a 30% winning strike rate. He also insists on good odds.

Here is what he has told me. For ease of reference I have put it in point form.

1. If you are getting good odds about horses that win regularly you must be able to make money.

2. Make certain the distance of the race is O.K.

3. See if the horse handles the track.

4. The horse must also be able to run in the conditions. Do not use guesswork here. If the horse has never run on a Heavy track do not back it first time on a Heavy.

5. Weight is important. The horse must be able to handle any weight increase. Again no guesswork is used. Do not assume the horse will run O.K. carrying 59kg. if the highest weight it has carried is say 56kg. Think of weightlifters. They can't keep successfully lifting higher and higher weights.

6. Check for the pace of the race. Do not back a leader if the race is full of leaders. Do not back a run on horse unless there are at least two leaders in the race.

7. Barriers are important. Do not worry about a wide barrier too much if the horse usually settles near the rear of the field. However a wide barrier is a real concern for a leader or on pace horse, particularly if plenty of horses drawn inside it are leaders or on pace runners.

8. Last but not least the jockey is very important. It is best if the horse has its regular jockey. If not, look for a leading jockey. Only the best apprentices will do. Many apprentices are not worth their claims.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting money munchers
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Warwick Farm and Moonee Valley
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/2/2005
Punt to Win index

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Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Caffe Francais 16.30 26.40 $101
Banned 11.10 18.05 $69
Connoisseur 7.10 12.00 $49
Squad 5.70 10.65 $49

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