11/5/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

An "egg on your face" wrap

Larry Olsen on Sky Racing gave Might And Power's half brother, Matter Of Honour, a short priced favourite in a tough, wide open race, one of his biggest wraps ever before the 1400 metres $100,000 Group 2 Weight for Age race at Eagle Farm last Saturday was run.

He said the horse "is here on a serious mission", that he's a "standout on looks" and "It's a while since I've seen a horse look like this". He also added, "On the way he looks he is entitled to be favourite". Even the pattern of the race was going to suit Matter Of Honour because Larry Olsen said, "He's going to lead and at Weight for Age this will suit him."

But what about form and weights? He was beaten by nine lengths at his previous start two weeks earlier. He also rose 3kg. to 58kg. Viewers were told by Larry Olsen to "forget" Matter Of Honour's last start. No doubt hundreds of punters did.

Matter Of Honour was sent out at the racetrack as $3.50 favourite. At the jump he was showing only $2.90 on SuperTab. Larry Olsen was correct. Matter Of Honour did lead. But he fell in a hole over the last 200 metres and finished ninth, beaten by over five lengths.

As a general rule:
1.Horses that lost badly at their previous start are poor bets.
2.If they increase in weight in addition they become worse bets.

Value is the name of the game

The main race at Morphettville last Saturday was the 2000 metres Group 1 Australasian Oaks for 3YO Fillies. In this 16 horse field it was quite amazing to see Lolita Star backed in from short odds of $3.20 and start as $2.60 favourite with the winner Tempest Morn also backed in from only $3.50 to $3.20 second favourite. Tempest Morn even had barrier 13, a shocker for an on pace runner, as there was only a short run to the first turn.

Converting their starting prices to percentages gives a total of 69%. If those prices were value, which of course they weren't, it means the rest of the field between them, the other 14 runners, had only a 31% chance of winning the race.

Tempest Morn had been set for the $700,000 A.J.C. Oaks held at Randwick two weeks earlier, her seventh run in a three and a half months campaign. There was absolutely no improvement possible in her.

Many horses set for major races in the Sydney Autumn Carnival who then head off to the Adelaide and Brisbane Carnivals have a record of going around at well under the odds and performing poorly as they are past their peak in their current campaigns.

Under the odds at Morphettville

There were more favourites apart from Grand Echezeauz $1.70 and Lolita Star $2.60 well under the odds at Morphettville.

Aptego, handicapped with 58kg. after a three kilos claim, was plunged like a certainty from $4.60 and started at $2.20 in a 16 horse field. He finished eighth, beaten by nearly five lengths.

Liberty Rose, a filly, was heavily backed from $3.80 and sent out as $2.80 favourite in a 2YO listed race. She finished fifth.

Party Boy trained by Lee Freedman and with top hoop Damien Oliver to ride was hit hard by losing favourites backers. A flood of money sent him in from $6.50 to a short priced $3.50 favourite in a three year old Listed race. Punters didn't worry about the 3.5kg. weight rise and barrier 13 in the 16 horse field. He worked hard early, out wide, and was under pressure by the 800. He folded badly, finishing eleventh, beaten by 13 lengths.

Bradshaw trained by John Hawkes, with another leading jockey in Brett Prebble, was plunged from $6.50 to $4.00 favourite in a Group 3, 1100 metres, 15 horse raffle. He also rose in weight by four kilos to 56.5kg. He never got into the race and finished sixth.

Voronoff firmed from $3.20 to $2.80 favourite in the last, a 15 horse restricted race which was an 1100 metres raffle. He finished ninth, beaten by five lengths.

Taking short odds about horses in big fields or tough races is not a way to make long term profits betting on horses. So is taking very short odds about horses that "can't lose", like Grand Echezeauz.

Next: Punt to Win 4/5/2001
Three pages crammed with horse racing, punting and betting tips.

Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.