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12/1/2013 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 22nd. December, 2012.

Warwick Farm: Track Good.

R1 $85,000 3YO. Rating 74. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Heart Testa
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Jason Collett
Trainer: Chris Waller


Flemington: Track Good.

R1 $80,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Safeguard
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: Peter Snowden

R4 $80,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Go The Knuckle
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Nicholas Hall
Trainer: Robert Smerdon
Winner: Beltrois
Starting price: $21.00
Top fluctuation: $21.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $22.70
Jockey: Ryan Moloney
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths


Doomben: Track Good.

R7 $200,000 Open. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Phelan Ready
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Damian Browne
Trainer: Jason McLachlan
Winner: Audacious Spirit
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Jeff Lloyd
Trainer: Gillian Heinrich

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting tips - wagering backmarkers
The Free Horse Racing Tipster horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/1/2013

Betting favourites in small fields: 29/12/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/12/2012
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/12/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 31/12/2012
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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