12/3/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, March 6.

Warwick Farm: Track Good
R2 $100,000 2YO. Group 3. Set weights.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Crimson Reign
Result: first
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctation: $2.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Bruce McLachlan

Doomben: Track Heavy, changed to Slow after R3, changed to Dead after R5
R1 $25,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1615 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Zip It Up
Result: seventh
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctation: $2.30
Jockey: Graeme Birney
Trainer: Graeme Neville Stewart
Winner: Top Marc
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Kelly Schweida

R3 $25,000 Rs0mw. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: The Cove Director
Result: first
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Adam Best
Trainer: Bryan Guy

R4 $25,000 Rs1mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1110 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Blaze A Fortune
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctation: $3.30
Jockey: Brad Stewart
Trainer: Craig Smith
Winner: Little Bit Lively
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.50
Jockey: Paul Hammersley
Trainer: Bryan Guy

R8 $25,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Abstandance
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctation: $3.20
Jockey: Lacey Morrison
Trainer: Grant Norman
Winner: Negate
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.00
Jockey: Mitchell Rice
Trainer:Andrew Williamson

Cheltenham: Track Good
R2 $24,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1365 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Mot D'Or
Result: second
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctation: $2.40
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Cointreau Ball
Starting price: $8.00
Top fluctation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $11.50
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

R3 $20,000 Mares. Rs1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1465 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Madam Dehereos
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctation: $3.50
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Miss Suzi Que
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Mark Minervini

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting first up horses
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Warwick Farm, Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 5/3/2004
Punt to Win index

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