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12/4/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 5th. April, 2014.

Flemington: Track Good.

R2 $180,000 2YO. Open. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Second Option
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.50
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Easy Drama
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

Eagle Farm: Track Dead.

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Lady Echelon
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Timothy Bell
Trainer: Natalie McCall
Winner: Kiss Me Deadly
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Ruby Ride
Trainer: Matt Kropp

This edition of Punt to Win:
Sydney horse racing autumn carnival betting tips
The Free Insider Tip from the Trainer horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Golden Slipper Stakes Day 5/4/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: Rosehill Guineas & George Ryder Stakes Day 29/3/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: 22/3/2014 & 21/3/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/4/2014

Betting favourites in small fields: 29/3/2014 & 22/3/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 22/3/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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