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13/6/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, June 7.

Flemington: Track Good
R3 $60,000 Hurdle (14 hurdles)
Distance: 3400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Specular
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 3 lengths
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctation: $1.65
Tote dividends' range: $1.40 - $1.50
Jockey: Adrian Garraway
Trainer: Tony Rosolini

Cheltenham: Track Dead
R2 $22,000 3YO Open
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Maybe McLaren
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 1.3 lengths
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctation: $1.90
Tote dividends' range: $1.60 - $1.80
Jockey: Cheree Buchiw
Trainer: Jeremy Gask

This edition of Punt to Win:
Top fluctuation bets - you benefit
All-up bets and value
Betting tips - weight, distance, lightly raced horses
Betting favourites in small fields
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick, Flemington betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Cheltenham betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/6/2003
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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