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13/8/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, August 7.

Randwick: Track Good
R1 $50,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Evelina
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Brad Pengelly
Trainer: Les Bridge
Winner: Bush Honey
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.20
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Guy Walter

R3 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Precise Timing
Result: second
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Brent Stanley
Trainer: Ross Stitt
Winner: Chainsaw Charlie
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Darryl McLellan
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R6 $150,000 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Dance Hero
Result: third
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Charge Forward
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John O'Shea

Caulfield: Track Heavy
R1 $50,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cool And Composed
Result: seventh
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
Jockey: Michael Walker
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith
Winner: Courtney's Cuddles
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.90
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Pat Hyland

Eagle Farm: Track Good
R1 $24,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Steel Cap
Result: third
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Mitchell Rice
Trainer: Ray McCall
Winner: Huddle
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.30
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: John Hawkes

R2 $24,000 3YO. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Hit The Road
Result: second
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.20
Jockey: Shane Scriven
Trainer: Jason McLachlan
Winner: Yarrow
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $15.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $13.20
Jockey: Danny Craven
Trainer: Michael Craven

Morphettville: Track Slow
R1 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: six
Equal Favourite: Cullen Bay
Result: first
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.80
Jockey: Edward Brennen
Trainer: Graham Fryer
Equal Favourite: Noble Win
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Michael Hoppo
Trainer: David Jolly

R2 $20,000 Steeple. Handicap.
Distance: About 3600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Super Cobra
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
Jockey: Jason Wallace
Trainer: Eric Musgrove
Winner: Noah Yarn
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.20
Jockey: Robert Power
Trainer: John (MJ) O'Connor

R4 $20,000 Hurdle. Handicap.
Distance: 3237 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Apache King
Result: second
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Grant Young
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Merlos
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Craig Durden
Trainer: Eric Musgrove

This edition of Punt to Win:
Caulfield's heavy horse racing track - Bletchingly Stakes Day
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 6/8/2004
Punt to Win index


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It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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