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13/9/2008 edition

Should I Bet in That Race?

To bet or not to bet, that is the question

Consider the following situation, which is repeated year after year. There might be a big Group race for 2YOs or 3YOs, say at Flemington.

1. The track might be rain affected, rated Slow or Heavy.

2. Every one of the 12 or so runners last starts was on a Good rated track. That of course makes assessing current form very tough when track conditions vary so dramatically.

3. A number of the runners will have no exposed wet track form. There might be only one runner with more than three starts on Slow or Heavy tracks.

4. Now on top of that add minimal or no exposed form at the distance of the race.

What you have is a potential betting disaster just waiting to happen.

There's always another race. There's always another race day.

No punter should feel any compulsion to bet in any particular race or on any particular race day.

Similarly, when races are held in Melbourne full of unraced 2YOs with no trial form, absolutely no exposed form at all, if punters as a group refused to bet in such races you'd quickly find they would no longer be held.

Then you'd get races where all the runners had at least some exposed form so you would be able to make at least some intelligent assessments rather than just pure guesswork should you have a bet.

You could say in such situations punters are their own worst enemies.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should I have a wager in that race?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 6/9/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 30/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 23/8/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 6/9/2008 & 30/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 23/8/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/8/2008
Punt to Win index


2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


 

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