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13/9/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 23rd. August.

Warwick Farm: Track Slow

R1 $70,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Big Al Hazim
Result: sixth
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Bianca
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Daniel Ganderton
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R3 $100,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Danehill Smile
Result: seventh
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Winner: Kishkat
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Doomben: Track Dead

R2 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1615 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cayman Islands
Result: third
Starting price: $2.90
Jockey: Matthew Morris
Trainer: Greg Kennedy
Winner: Athenas Gift
Starting price: $4.40
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Shane Scriven
Trainer: Robert Heathcote

R3 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sommersea Drive
Result: fifth
Starting price: $1.90
Jockey: Brad Pengelly
Trainer: Trevor Miller
Winner: Bitabiff
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.20
Jockey: Scott Seamer
Trainer: Liam Birchley

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should I have a wager in that race?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 6/9/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 30/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 23/8/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 6/9/2008 & 30/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 23/8/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/8/2008
Punt to Win index

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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