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13/9/2008 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Flemington - 6/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mandela
59.5kg.
4
2000
$9.50
5/12
Cat's Fun
59.5kg.
8
1700
$11.00
10/15
Eagle Farm - 6/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hard To Catch
59.5kg.
4
1400
$9.00
4/6
Cheltenham - 6/9/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Rebel Raider
59kg.
1
1450
$3.00fav.
2/7
Caulfield - 30/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sonic Quest
59.5kg.
1
1400
$5.50
13/13
Warwick Farm - 23/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
For Cruyff's Sake
59kg.
4
2400
$4.80
4/8
Hoystar
59kg.
7
1200
$2.70fav.
2/9
Doomben - 23/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hard To Catch
60.5kg.
6
1350
$9.50
7/7
Instructed
59kg.
4
1200
$7.50
1/12
Morphettville - 23/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Perillo
59kg.
1
2048
$9.00
3/12
Rosehill - 16/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
O Danny Boy
59.5kg.
4
1300
$8.00
4/15
Star Of Crown
59kg.
4
1200
$6.50
1/13
Priceless Lad
59kg.
4
1100
$6.00
6/12
Caulfield - 16/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Sonic Quest
59.5kg.
1
1200
$8.00
8/16
Doomben - 16/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Polar Bear
60kg.
7
1650
$8.00
5/7
Rosehill - 9/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Hadaaf
60kg.
5
1800
$4.80
1/8
Rosehill - 2/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Bank Robber
59kg.
4
1200
$1.80fav.
6/13
Newton's Rings
59kg.
5
1500
$9.00
7/12
Caulfield - 2/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Gunfire Messiah
59kg.
11
1400
$5.00fav.
5/13
Morphettville - 2/8/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ejaad
59.5kg.
7
1200
$6.00
7/11
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should I have a wager in that race?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 6/9/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 30/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 23/8/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 6/9/2008 & 30/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 23/8/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/8/2008
Punt to Win index


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If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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