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13/9/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results from Saturday, 6th. September.

Eagle Farm: Track Heavy

R2 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Fulmonti
Result: second
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Adrian Coome
Trainer: Chris Jordan
Winner: Scattergun
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Brian Smith

R6 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Rockdale
Result: first

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: John Morrisey


Cheltenham: Track Dead

R6 $22,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1450 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Rebel Raider
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Adrian Patterson
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Wookah
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.90
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should I have a wager in that race?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 6/9/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 30/8/2008
Betting favourites in small field: 23/8/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 6/9/2008 & 30/8/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 23/8/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/8/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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