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14/5/2005 edition

Brisbane and Adelaide
Carnival Racing Betting Tips

The Brisbane and Adelaide Carnivals are in full swing. They are a time when many punters bet up and lose more money. Don't join them.

Last Saturday at Eagle Farm in the $175,000 Group 2 Queensland Guineas short priced favourite Afraah was the lay bet of the year.

1. There were 20 horses in the race.
2. Afraah had the horror barrier 20.
3. The 3YO Gai Waterhouse trained filly started at the ridiculously short odds of $2.90.
4. Bigger fields make results more random because the chances of bad luck in running increases. Bad luck does not distinguish between a short priced favourite and a $50.00 chance.

Needless to say, Afraah did not win. She was beaten by five lengths and finished thirteenth. The race was won by Saxon who started at $18.00.


Last Saturday at Morphettville in the $250,000 Group 1 Oaks, Candy Vale was sent out the very short priced $2.10 favourite.

1. It was a field of 16.
2. Cany Vale had won at Flemington on Anzac Day, April 25, by four lengths at her previous start, but that was over 1700 metres, not the 2031 metres of the Oaks. 1700 metres was the furthest she had raced.
3. Candy Vale raced on the pace, but weakened and fiished sixth, beatn by over five lengths.
4. Irish Darling won and paid tote odds of $36.40.
5. Irish Darling had at least performed over the distance. Her last start was also at Flemington on Anzac Day, April 25. But unlike Candy Vale, Irish Darling raced in a Fillies and Mares event over 2000 metres where she finished third, only one length from the winner. She had also won a Fillies and Mares 2100 metres race 12 days earlier.
6. Irish Darling was trained by the experienced Tony Vasil. He knew how to correctly prepare the filly for the Oaks.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Brisbane and Adelaide Carnival betting tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Flemington
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 7/5/2005
Punt to Win index


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