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15/11/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 8th. November, 2014.

Randwick: Track Good.

R1 $85,000 2YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Italy
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Trainer: John O'Shea
Winner: Mine Two
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Claire Nutman
Trainer: Garry Frazer

R3 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1150 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Fare Well
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Clarry Conners
Winner: Valcot
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.40
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Luke Griffith

R4 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Alberto Magic
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: TaylorMarshall
Trainer: Allan Denham
Winner: Ball Of Muscle
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Joseph Pride


Doomben: Track Good.

R2 $65,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Bush Aviator
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.20
Jockey: Luke Tarrant
Trainer: Tony Gollan
Winner: Darci Be Good
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Travis Wolfgram
Trainer: Andrew Williamson

This edition of Punt to Win:
Race caller betting tips and form analysis
The Free Let's Win Second Up horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: Cantala Stakes Day - 8/11/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: VRC Oaks Day - 6/11/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: Melbourne Cup Day - 4/11/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 8/11/2014
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 1/11/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
2014 Melbourne Cup Punt to Win 8/11/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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