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16/6/2012 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.


There were no small horse racing fields on Saturday, 9th. June.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 2nd. June, 2012.

Warwick Farm: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 2YO. Open. Set weights plus penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Nechita
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.85
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Christian Reith
Trainer: John P Thompson


Sandown Lakeside: Track Slow.

R4 $70,000 Hurdle. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 3400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Palmero
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Steven Pateman
Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Winner: Kirribilli Gold
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Tom Ryan
Trainer: Robert Smerdon


There were no small horse racing fields on Saturday, 26th. May.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing tips for betting on two year old horses
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Speed Winners free horse racing ratings betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 9/6/2012
Group 1 horse racing results: 2/6/2012 & 26/5/2012
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 9/6/2012, 2/6/2012 & 26/5/2012
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 26/5/2012
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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