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17/3/2001 edition

Each Way Betting

If anything can illustrate the poor value of many each way bets it must be a race like the Newmarket. Why would you place say $20 on a horse to win the race and another $20 for that same horse to finish either first, second or third and take one quarter of the win odds in a 20 horse field?

Mathematically it does not make any sense.
If a horse's price is say $11.00 you need considerably better odds than $3.50 for it to finish second or third in a field of 20. If it wins what are you doing getting only $3.50 instead of $11.00? The chances are very high, considerably more than $3.50 ( 5/2 ), that if it does not win it will also not finish second or third.

You have doubled your loss, or should you be fortunate enough to back the winner, substantially reduced your winnings.

No wonder every bookmaker bets each way in a race like that. They know what terrible value it is for the punter. But how many bookmakers will give you each way odds in fields of eight or nine runners when mathematically it is much better value for the punter?

I haven't even discussed each way betting on the tote here. Put simply, a lot of place betting on the tote is like backing a donkey to beat Sunline - the poor odds are not even worth considering.

Experts, heh?

We couldn't help noticing how many media pundits were pushing the John Hawkes trained Gladiators at short odds in the first at Doomben on a Heavy track. The two year old gelding had convincingly won his only race on a Good rated track. The common line was that he will love the conditions, being out of a Zamazaan mare. He flopped dismally, being all at sea on a badly rain affected track ( pardon the pun ).

No surprise.

Northerly brilliant

There is no doubt about it. Northerly is a superstar. He was wide throughout in the Group 1 Weight for Age Australian Cup at Flemington over the 2000 metres and blitzed the field, running a track record as well. This four year old gelding now has six wins and three placings from only 10 starts.

Just as well Northerly's West Australian trainer Fred Kersley stuck to his guns and continued with Northerly's Australian Cup preparation. If he had listened to jockey Brett Prebble who finished second on Northerly at Caulfield on March 3, Northerly wouldn't have been in the Australian Cup worth $1,250,000!!

You could say Brett Prebble made a slight blooper there. Greg Childs who won on Northerly in record time on February 17 replaced Prebble in the Australian Cup and collected the winning jockey's fee of over $40,000 plus any slings that came his way.

By the way, you don't need to pay a fortune to get a champion. Fred Kersley's half share cost only $9000.

Next: Punt to Win 10/3/2001

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Top Odds Are Important

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners last Saturday?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.


Get these prices!! Or these prices?
Palagia 7.00 3.80
Border Time 7.00 5.60
Naked Eye 4.60 3.80
Tie The Knot 2.60 2.40
Fetes Galantes 2.25 1.90
Red Hannigan 2.25 2.00

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