17/11/2000 edition

Follow the Money

How often are you told when there is a field of unraced two year olds to watch the betting moves and follow the "smart" money when the correct advice is to leave the race alone. Putting big money on unraced horses is a very common way of losing at the punt. 

On Cup Day at Flemington in a 2YO Listed race over 1000 metres the Russell Cameron trained first starter Obadele was backed like a certainty from 5/1 to 3/1. 
How many of those 121,000 attending the Cup had a little flutter on that "certainty", on the assumption there was intelligent stable money for it?

Obadele was speedy and led. But what did those punters who put big money on it know about King Of Prusssia? Obviously next to nothing because King Of Prusssia showed a great turn of foot and bolted in by four lengths. He also eased in the betting ring from 3/1 to 9/2. How smart was the big money plunged on Obadele? Doesn't look too smart to us. 

Four days later some of those losers on Obadele backed up on another Russell Cameron trained first starter Catman, which was an $85,000 purchase. That's not in the big league as far as yearling prices go. It was actually plunged from 4/1 to 5/2. Why not hold off, let the bookies ease the price and then back the horse if you want to plunge a first starter?. After all the market was 150%. 

To win that race Catman also had to be way above average. He was meeting three excellent last start winners in Develan, Desert Angel and Langoustine. Malagra Miss had also won in fine style down the Flemington straight on October 2, and did not have much luck at her only other start two weeks later. 

As for Catman, he showed early pace to lead. There must have been quite a few punters feeling quite smart having blindly followed the money. Catman folded and was beaten by 10 lengths. Following the money, obtaining even shorter odds than the initial 4/1 about Catman is a guaranteed way to lose long term at the punt. Even more so for punters who took the 5/2. 

Next Page
Do you back favourites during Cup week?
How many favourites won? Find out.

Copyright ©1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.