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18/5/2001 edition

Big Betting Plunge Misses Out

There was a big go in the 2YO Open over 1100 metres at Randwick last Saturday. The John Hawkes trained Participate was expected to win first up and was backed in from $5.00 to $2.80.

In the race two other promising horses were resuming from spells. There were three unraced horses and five horses who had only had one start. That means a lot of undisclosed form and also plenty of horses who could show dramatic improvement or form reversals.

Participate had raced only once, in December, for a promising third and had won a barrier trial on May 4. Maybe the $5.00 could be justified. But it is not possible to justify any price around $2.80. Taking those odds in a race like that guarantees punters will lose long term.

We were thankful for the plunge on Participate. It meant our selection, Palm Flyer who had opened at the short odds of $2.25 got the wobbles in the betting ring and dramatically eased to $4.20. Those were good odds considering his outstanding run on April 25. Palm Flyer again led all the way and won.

I wonder how many punters turned off Palm Flyer because of the betting and backed Participate instead? Judging by what we have seen in the past, probably plenty. That's why punters lose.

At least the supporters of Participate got some sort of run for their money, but not the run to justify the flood of money. He finished third, beaten by nearly two lengths, but did finish nearly four lengths ahead of the next horse.


Family Of Song - we're not singing

I couldn't help notice the huge push given this horse by Larry Olsen before the second at Doomben. He was the odds on favourite in a two year old race with a number of other realistic chances.

Family Of Song was a very bad value bet at odds on. Larry Olsen did admit it was a "bit short" but unfortunately did not tell the viewers, "Don't back it at those odds."

The horse finished second. Baal Yabba, value at $37.50 won the race.


Portsmouth, what value?

Despite two convincing wins there was no way known this two year old should have been backed last Saturday at $1.80. He even paid a more paltry $1.60 on SuperTab for the win.

He was jumping up in distance from 1200 metres to 1600 metres, which always makes horses risky bettting propositions. On top of that, he, along with the rest of the field, were untried at the distance.

"Too good. He gave them all weight and a beating," exclaimed the racecaller when Portsmouth won.

We would hardly say that about a one and a half lengths win, particularly when Portsmouth looked no sure thing early in the home straight. How often are those results reversed next start?

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Top Odds Are Important

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Did you back any of these winners last week?
If you did, see the prices you should have got.

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Firm 4.90 11.00 154% $610
Intelligent Star 7.20 8.50 21% $130
Haunting Spirit 3.40 4.60 50% $120
British Buska 2.90 3.80 47% $90
Falvelon 3.80 4.60 29% $80
Kashcrop 2.00 2.80 80% $80
Altiero 3.50 4.20 28% $70
Flying Visit 2.30 3.00 54% $70
Palm Flyer 3.50 4.20 28% $70
Evans Advantage 2.20 2.80 67% $60


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