18/5/2001 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Mares restricted races - 1800 metres

You're generally asking for trouble betting in these races. So it turned out at Randwick when Sharood, a six year old mare, with just three wins and another 10 placings from 39 starts, won at odds of $38.90. Amazingly there was even a little specking for her in the betting ring where she firmed from $51.00 to $31.00.

Let's take the short odds

Have you noticed how punters jump on a horse after he has won at long odds and take short odds the next start. The horse invariably loses. It happens every week.

On May 5 Hoo Ha won at Doomben and paid up to $25.50. He backed up the following week in a tougher race and with a weight rise. Punters took $4.60. Hoo Ha had an easy run, but weakened over the last 150 and finished ninth, beaten by about four lengths.

Quinella odds?

No wonder punters lose. Look at the dividend for the quinella in the fifth at Morphettville. It was a 3YO Group 2 set weights race over 1200 metres with numerous place chances.

But in this 16 horse field the two most favoured runners finished one, two. The quinella paid a paltry $5.30 on SuperTab. There is no way known that combination will occur anywhere near one in five times, which is needed for the dividend to be value.

That is why taking bets which are popular on the tote guarantee you must lose long term. For the tote to win on the race all the winning punters will usually get way under the true odds. Because there are more successful punters on a popular tote bet, the more terrible the odds the tote will give them.

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