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19/3/2004 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

By the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - fared last Saturday. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Canterbury 13/3/2004
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Century Kid
60.5kg.
1
1100
$4.40
2/7
Hail
59kg.
8
1900
$7.00
8/12
Sharp
59kg.
3
1100
$3.80
2/8
Flemington 13/3/2004
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Under The Bridge
61.5kg.
6
2000
$3.60f.
1/11
Regal Roller
60kg.
10
1400
$3.60f.
3/10
Eagle Farm 13/3/2004
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Star Of Florida
59.5kg.
1
1000
$2.25f.
1/12
Morphettville 13/3/2004
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Roman Arch
60.5kg.
6
1600
$8.00
4/14
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Are betting exchanges doomed in Australia?
Night horse racing - should you bet on it?
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Canterbury, Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/3/2004
Punt to Win index


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Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor tote odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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