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19/7/2008 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips and Wagering Strategy

Recently we have been fortunate to discuss wagering with a successful professional gambler. This person values his anonymity, so we will call him John. Here is some of the betting advice we received.

"Stop betting on the day when you've won a set amount"

John said, "It is not logical to stop betting after a predetermined amount of profits have been made for the day."

We asked, "Why is that? Many punters aim to take out a set profit for the day and then stop as a winner. Surely there is no harm in that?"

To which John replied, "All punters should know what they are going to bet and how they are going to stake their selections before the races start. The only qualification needed is that the right price is obtained about each selection. I certainly don't do what most punters do and that is try to "pick the winner" of a race and then back it at any old odds because "it's going to win" and "any odds a winner are good odds." That in my opinion is the way to the punting poor house.

John then added, "If you are making good profits your future selections for the day don't know how your earlier selections went. How they go has absolutely nothing to do with what happened earlier in the day. Their performance is completely independent of what happened earlier. I have never stopped my betting for the day because of some randomly set dollar profit amount for the day being made. Over the long term to do so would have cost me money, lots of money and definitely not saved me money."

However, John did admit that there were some valid reasons to stop betting as a winner when you were a set amount in front. Here they are:

1. It's good psychologically to win. Similarly, for many punters it's not good psychologically to see their day's profits disappear, even when betting in an organised manner.

2. If punters are "doing the form" from race to race - definitely not recommended - then they should stop when a set amount in front, as most of these punters will lose those profits and more by day's end.

3. Many punters who start out in a disciplined manner, with selections made before the races start, do not have the strict discipline needed once they are showing good profits for the day and will then bet up, or in some other way change their future bets. There's nothing worse than winning with a number of predetermined $20 and $50 bets and then going and losing everything on one of your other selections by making a spur of the moment larger bet, say $500, instead of betting $50 because you are well up on the day. Or by putting everything on some horse you never intended to back because you heard a whisper, or saw a betting plunge on it.

4. Just to emphasise the point about discipline, Tony also mentioned wagering on longshots. He added, "Surely you should know it is lack of discipline and a lack of conbfidence in their selection methods that causes many punters to lose when they back horses at long odds - say $20.00 plus. Punters seem to expect the same winning strike rate like backing favourites and just simply fail to understand that if you are backing horses at $20.00 plus then losing runs of 20 and longer must be regarded as normal.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing betting tips and wagering strategy
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Unplaced Smokeys horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 12/7/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/7/2008 & 28/6/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 12/7/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 5/7/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 28/6/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 28/6/2008
Punt to Win index


2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


 

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